mardigras Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 A discussion on things Melbourne Cup. I'll start with the recent change by RV to amend the allowance given NH bred 3yos. On the basis they've been given some sort of red carpet treatment. Well they have because it gives them free entry into the race. The allowance provides that as it makes their benchmark weight lower and order entry is largely based on difference between weight allocated and the benchmark weight for the horse based on age/gender. Increasing the benchmark won't change anything in the race if the weight they are allocated is the same amount different to a new benchmark. They will still get in the field as easily as they do now. And the change will have little to zero impact on their chances of winning. And if they decide to weight their performances higher (as has also been suggested) that will bring lesser NH 3yos higher up the entry order making it even easier for an NH 3yo to make the field. Instead, why don't they scrap all age/gender allowances and weight them as they should, as a handicap effin race. Forget stupid WFA allowances and handicap them appropriately. Or are they too useless to do that. It's like giving Winx 61kg on handicap and then saying, no, she's female. Take a couple of kilos off that, you poor female. How stupid are these people? Well done on that. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 Things to consider The last 3 Cup winners have carried 51kg 51.5kg 52kgs 35 out of the 150 cups have been won by the fav 71 of the favs have finished in the top 3 (47%) Not one mare has won the cup in the last 13 years the last mare to win was the freak MD 9 Stallions have won the cup in the last 13 years 90/150 Stallion/Colts have won the cup No horse over the age of 8 has won the cup I think only two 8 year olds have won the cup 137 out of the 150 Cups have been won by horses aged less than 7 The NH 3year olds have been rolled out the red carpet as Mardi has said and the likes of Aiden O’Brien has a truckload of 3 year old colts in his barn between him and Charlie Appleby they know exactly what type of 3-4 year old it takes to win this race they will be gifted into the race No longer is the cup treated as a handicap which is supposed to equal things out ability wise Once the first acceptances are released I know exactly where my focus will be on and I can tell you now it’s highly unlikely it will be at the top end of the weight scale 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted June 27, 2019 Author Share Posted June 27, 2019 (edited) From a stats point of view (which I am no fan of), you also have to consider how many of each of those groups start in the race. The last 3 years may mean nothing. If they were gifted the race, why didn't they each start warm favourite. Surely the 'gift' would be obvious. They are gifted entry into the race (along with a weight below what it should be). If they continue to give the 3yos free entry, then they are bound to perform, just as they do in the UK. They don't get weighted on shown ability by Carpenter, he weights them on age. Edited June 27, 2019 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted June 27, 2019 Author Share Posted June 27, 2019 14 hours ago, VC! said: Once the first acceptances are released I know exactly where my focus will be on and I can tell you now it’s highly unlikely it will be at the top end of the weight scale If the best horse is weighted near the bottom, then I'd certainly be looking at the bottom weights. I think the best horse tends to win the Melbourne Cup. Makybe Diva (whatever weight), Protectionist, Counter Cross etc. The best horse wins (most often). MD won by the same margin 3 years running. Each year with a different weight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted June 28, 2019 Share Posted June 28, 2019 To answer one of your questions when I go through the fields and i’m Rating each horse against one another I don’t even look at the difference in weight I used to and I say USED TO look at barrier draws I was of the mythical belief that barriers played a large part in the horses performance I have now discarded barriers to some extent I still look at speed maps which dictates the likely tempo of the race, and if a race is looking like the first 600 is going to be run at a cracking pace and the horse drawn wide is a likely leader Then the barrier comes into play having said that any barrier comes into play as they are likely to cut at one another As for the Melbourne Cup I put some serious coin on the race so treat it very seriously I agree the best horse is likely to win and the best horse is not necessarily the favourite Things might be different this year Its a process of elimination half the field won’t stay the 2 mile I will narrow the field down to about 6 and invest accordingly Order of entry Will they won’t they make the field Quarantine need all be considered along the way, to completely rule out a horse because it has 55+kgs is just utter madness but going on the last 2 years and the class of trainer in O’Brien and Appleby they know what type of horse it takes to win this race they know they can qualify with next to nothing on its back even if Colin Carpenter raises the weight by 1kg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted June 28, 2019 Author Share Posted June 28, 2019 For sure VC. It always amazes me how many horses get punted that are 9kg below benchmark weight and have to win a ballot exempt race or get some hefty penalties along the way to even have a chance to make the field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandpiper Posted June 28, 2019 Share Posted June 28, 2019 4 hours ago, VC! said: Its a process of elimination half the field won’t stay the 2 mile I will narrow the field down to about 6 and invest accordingly Right on brother. A race that rewards intimate knowledge of each runner. We have half the field to cross out like you say and untold mountains of random money thrown at the pools. Wouldn't mind the odd pacemaker but then Flemington is wonderfully fair so can't be too critical. The weights are a mess of course - it's Carpenters little annual little-hitler project. There is for sure a room in his house filled with clippings of all the headlines he creates just for the sake of it. You know he loves it. “We have put forward a proposal to Racing Australia to change the allowances under the Australian Rules Of Racing and the weight-for-age scale so that northern hemisphere three-year-olds are not more generously treated here in Australia than they would be if they were actually racing on the same day over the same distance in Europe,” he said. “For example, a 3200-metre race on the first Tuesday of November we were giving them a four kilogram allowance against the older horses, which is the equivalent of eight pounds 10 ounces, and they were getting only seven pounds in the English scale. “So, what we’ve done is we’ve amended the benchmark weight for northern hemisphere three-year-olds in the Melbourne Cup from 55-1/2-(kilograms) to 56-1/2. So instead of getting four kilos off the older horses, they will now get three.” (link) 1kg hardly worth worrying about. They are still 6 months bigger and stronger. I would have thought the fair thing to do would be to give them the midpoint of the 3yo and 4yo allowance. Might start a thread to record building up an antepost book on the race this year, have been meaning to do more pre-November research for once. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted July 11, 2019 Author Share Posted July 11, 2019 (edited) I read this. I certainly dispute the veracity of the statements. Bold and italics. The last top weight to win the Caulfield Cup was Dunaden in 2012 and prior to that you have to go back to Comic Court in 1950. Seems at odds with what the results say. In the Caulfield Cup, Redcraze won in 1956. Pretty sure he was the topweight. As was Rising Fast in 1955. Of course, Sky Heights won the 1999 Caulfield Cup (I was there) as the topweight, and Northerly won in 2002 as was there then also. And Sydeston won as topweight in 1990. Along with Dunaden mentioned in 2012. Comic Court didn't even win the Caulfield Cup in 1950 (he won the Melbourne Cup in 1950 as topweight). I make that at least 6 in 64 years. about 1 in 11. Haven't even checked all the rest. In the Melbourne Cup it was Makybe Diva in 2005 and then all the way back to Rising Fast in 1954. In the Melbourne Cup, Hyperno won in 1979 as topweight as did Rain Lover in 1969. And Comic Court in 1950. Along with the mentioned Rising Fast in 1954. So that makes 5 top weights winning in the last 69 years. Given the number of topweights during that time, 5 seems pretty high to me. Edited July 11, 2019 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted July 11, 2019 Author Share Posted July 11, 2019 (edited) Add to that, the 1951 and 1952 Melbourne Cups were also won by the topweight, making 7 topweights in the last 69 years. And Tobin Bronze won the Caulfield Cup in 1967. Making that 7 in 64 years. Not bad. Edited July 11, 2019 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 I really thought Sky Heights was going to be relegated in the 1999 Caulfield Cup Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted July 11, 2019 Author Share Posted July 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, VC! said: I really thought Sky Heights was going to be relegated in the 1999 Caulfield Cup The Zabeel trifecta! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 Just now, mardigras said: The Zabeel trifecta! Purchased of Alan Jones Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 I’m looking forward to the puzzle nominations first acceptances order of entry then trying to put some sort of ratings in place then trying to get set at maximum odds Trainer of Houtzen was interviewed at Royal Ascot he said the Melbourne Cup is unbelievable it’s not a race it’s an event, but Royal Ascot takes it to another level, I’ve never been to Royal Ascot geez my bucket list is getting long 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted July 11, 2019 Author Share Posted July 11, 2019 (edited) 25 minutes ago, mardigras said: Add to that, the 1951 and 1952 Melbourne Cups were also won by the topweight, making 7 topweights in the last 69 years. And Tobin Bronze won the Caulfield Cup in 1967. Making that 7 in 64 years. Not bad. To make things worse, the last winning topweight of the Caulfield Cup wasn't Dunaden. It was Best Solution last year and before that it was Admire Rakti in 2014. That's makes it 9 in 64 years. The clown that wrote those comments is exactly that, a clown. Edited July 11, 2019 by mardigras 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted July 13, 2019 Author Share Posted July 13, 2019 Curious, in your other post, I wonder why he couldn't even work out that Best Solution who won last years Caulfield Cup and Admire Rakti had both won since Dunaden. Top weight in the Caulfield Cup has been very successful - one of these elite handicaps not just any old handicap race. Maybe he'll want to eliminate that one from his 'supporting evidence'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted July 13, 2019 Share Posted July 13, 2019 So at least double the expected win rate for both races I'm guessing and he suggests drawing a line through the topweight! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted July 13, 2019 Author Share Posted July 13, 2019 10 minutes ago, curious said: So at least double the expected win rate for both races I'm guessing and he suggests drawing a line through the topweight! Even before assessing the rest, he started off being unable to back the winner in 3 of the last 7 Caulfield Cups. Good thinking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete Posted July 13, 2019 Share Posted July 13, 2019 Interesting that this person seems to disappear at exactly the same time Mr Blue Print is given a holiday. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted July 16, 2019 Author Share Posted July 16, 2019 I thought I'd give my view on where I think horses might be weighted in the Melbourne Cup (assuming nominated - of which many won't be). Might be miles out of course. Feel free to put your own thoughts on these weights. These are based on horses currently included in the Betfair antepost event. Horse Weight Almond Eye 58 Avilius 58 Kew Gardens 57.5 Stradivarius 57.5 Cross Counter 57 Defoe 57 Ghaiyyath 57 Torcedor 56.5 Dee Ex Bee 56 Flag Of Honour 55.5 Marmelo 55.5 Ispolini 55 Amade 54.5 Holdthasigreen 54.5 Magic Circle 54.5 Morando 54.5 Rekindling 54.5 A Prince Of Arran 54 Called To The Bar 54 Capri 54 Latrobe 54 Rostropovich 54 Gold Mount 53.5 Johannes Vermeer 53.5 Roger Barows 53.5 Southern France 53.5 Duretto 53 Finche 53 Muntahaa 53 Yucatan 53 Look Twice 52.5 Mikki Swallow 52.5 Mootasadir 52.5 Neufbosc 52.5 Wells Farhh Go 52.5 Vengeur Masque 52.5 Extra Brut 52 Master Of Reality 52 Big Duke 51.5 Falcon Eight 51.5 Nagano Gold 51.5 Shraaoh 51.5 Sixties Groove 51.5 Thomas Hobson 51.5 Twilight Payment 51.5 Quorto 51 Youngstar 51 Jaameh 51 Steel Prince 51 Surprise Baby 51 Withhold 51 Low Sun 50.5 Yogi 50.5 Django Freeman 50 Rondinella 50 Verry Elleegant 50 Ben Vrackie 50 Broome 50 Dubhe 50 Furrion 50 Ghostwatch 50 Spanish Mission 50 Downdraft 50 Etymology 50 Runaway 50 Kings Advice 50 Vow And Declare 50 Chapada 50 Hush Writer 50 Schabau 50 Dubai Tradition 50 Felaar 50 Mugatoo 50 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 I would expect Avilius to be allocated around 54 kgs He carried 54.5 in last years cup and ran 22nd The big watch for me is Finche he has had a good 12 months to acclimatise is with the Master trainer Chris Waller who only had him briefly last year where he finished 3rd close up in the Geelong Cup then a credible 4th in the Melbourne Cup Waller has never won the Melbourne Cup this race eludes the Master trainer Finche never raced in the Autumn probably planned You would imagine Finche will easily qualify He should get around 54.5kgs for the cup which suits my assessment he carried 54kgs last year and ran 4th He will be very closely watched by myself Waller will have him at the trials next month his whole preparation will be planned towards one race the first Tuesday in November 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted July 16, 2019 Author Share Posted July 16, 2019 Finche has already qualified and will get enough weight. My weights are relative so are based on a top weight of 58kg, I can't see him getting more than that since he hasn't started since, he earned a point adjustment for his 4th.Probably unlucky to get that. (My weights above are based on no changes from performances between now and release of weights). I believe Carpenter still uses ratings to weight the race predominantly. Avilius is 9 ratings points higher in Victoria than he was when weighted for the Cup last time. He was also inconvenienced in the run so my view is that it is unlikely to play much part in the thinking. Since the cup he has had 5 starts, won 2 Group Ones, a Group Two, a Group Three and 1 1.4L 5th in another Group one. Prior to the Cup he had won nothing better than Group 3s. Be interesting to see what happens. I don't think he'll run in the cup. I suspect they will focus on the Cox Plate with him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 (edited) Cummings has a long-term aim of setting Avilius for the Melbourne Cup again after the stayer was knocked out of the race early last year, like you said. Avilius has only been beaten 3 times in Australia 2 of those defeats have been at Flemington the latest as a $1-65 favourite in the Australia Cup All 3 of Avilius defeats have been left handed he is 6 from 6 right handed in Australia Thursday 29th August Nominations mid September order of entry Edited July 16, 2019 by VC! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted July 16, 2019 Author Share Posted July 16, 2019 1 minute ago, VC! said: Cummings has a long-term aim of setting Avilius for the Melbourne Cup again after the stayer was knocked out of the race early last year, like you said. Avilius has only been beaten 3 times in Australia 2 of those defeats have been at Flemington the latest as a $1-65 favourite in the Australia Cup All 3 of Avilius defeats have been left handed he is 6 from 6 right handed in Australia Tuesday 27th August first acceptances mid September order of entry I don't think he is up to winning the race. But been wrong before. If he gets my suggested weight, I wonder what Cummings will think. If he gets yours, he'll probably think Christmas has come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Nominations Thursday, August 29, 2019 Late Nominations Tuesday, September 3, 2019 Weights Tuesday, September 10, 2019 First Declaration Tuesday, October 8, 2019 Second Declaration Monday, October 28, 2019 Final Field Saturday, November 2, 2019 at 6.30pm Barrier Draw Saturday, November 2, 2019 at 7pm Melbourne Cup Race Tuesday, November 5, 2019 at 3pm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, mardigras said: I don't think he is up to winning the race. But been wrong before. If he gets my suggested weight, I wonder what Cummings will think. If he gets yours, he'll probably think Christmas has come. If he gets yours I doubt he will run My weights are what I think Greg Carpenter will allocate the horses Avilius will probably run in the Cup with anything around 55kgs I would imagine I would rather back the horse in the Caulfield Cup Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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