Road to the NZ Cup 2024

[karrotsishere]

Just reading Old Town Road retired says end of the road. Agree with article he should of won a G1. He was very good. Very fast. What a shame. 

[richie]

Thinking the $7 I got on Merlin is looking like great value now with Leap to Fame very unlikely to come.

Old Town Road has been struggling this season and most likely wouldnt have been competitive in the  cup ,BDJoe another one struggling and I cant see how he is ahead of Charlie Brown,who has 4 placings in lead up races, in the rankings.

[vanturk]

7 minutes ago, richie said:

Thinking the $7 I got on Merlin is looking like great value now with Leap to Fame very unlikely to come.

Old Town Road has been struggling this season and most likely wouldnt have been competitive in the  cup ,BDJoe another one struggling and I cant see how he is ahead of Charlie Brown,who has 4 placings in lead up races, in the rankings.

You'd be pretty happy with $7 now for  merlin 

[Globederby19]

On 10/2/2024 at 7:39 PM, Double R said:

numbers under the maximum of 15 starts, then sobeit. I am reluctant to say, but some horses in the past that have been added to make up the field, have contributed to making the race messy.

Agree Robert wholeheartedly. 

[Double R]

1 hour ago, richie said:

Thinking the $7 I got on Merlin is looking like great value now with Leap to Fame very unlikely to come.

Old Town Road has been struggling this season and most likely wouldnt have been competitive in the  cup ,BDJoe another one struggling and I cant see how he is ahead of Charlie Brown,who has 4 placings in lead up races, in the rankings.

Hi Ritchie,

You may have read today that Old Town Road has been retired.

[karrotsishere]

Im interested to see how Rock N Roll Doo goes. If you look at his time he ran same time as 5th placed Tact Mcleod. 

The think with Doo is he unfortunetly seems to have bad luck. Sending him some good luck vibes.

[Lightning Blue]

1 hour ago, karrotsishere said:

Im interested to see how Rock N Roll Doo goes. If you look at his time he ran same time as 5th placed Tact Mcleod. 

The think with Doo is he unfortunetly seems to have bad luck. Sending him some good luck vibes.

He is a very erratic type of horse that throws his head around and just doesn't want to be there on a lot of occasions.

Had his moment in the Sun though , winning the Victoria Cup 2 years ago beating Better Eclipse and Nz's best horse in Copy That. A golden Group 1 moment. But has Only won 2 races since across 2 years.  . (nearly fluked it (Victoria Cup) last year too, beaten a neck in total,  but was only 4th lol)  so a bit better than most I spose. 

4 hours ago, Double R said:

You may have read today that Old Town Road has been retired.

That horse Extremely overrated.  One win this year in a 5 horse field defeating Alta Wiseguy . and just one win last year defeating Simply Sam in a 7 horse field. Both at Auckland. Old Town Road ONLY  did what MANY others have for decades,  in winning 8 races  of his 3 and 4 year old years  . to be a handy 'young' horse. and then only those 2 races in tiny fields,  in past 2 years. 

OTR a Cup horse ?  of any kind ? No Chance.. would of thought Invercargill Cup would of even been too tough 😋. 

Please just shoot me if he is one of the 'better ones' that NZ can come up with these days 🙄. now I can see how raider Swayzee won so easy at Addington anyway 

Edited yesterday at 03:42 AM by Lightning Blue

[karrotsishere]

1 of your favs Newmarket, Charlie Brown has made top 15 Cup.

Leap to Fame is looking like he will make it they are saying on boxseat. But still need to see. 

[Double R]

9 hours ago, karrotsishere said:

1 of your favs Newmarket, Charlie Brown has made top 15 Cup.

Leap to Fame is looking like he will make it they are saying on boxseat. But still need to see. 

On the subject of Charlie Brown, his half brother Always B Elite is very much in the same mould. Just below the top tier as three year olds, but are both genuine horses.

[karrotsishere]

Actually on Boxseat Guerin made another valid point. That is 20m handicap for FFAers. Being its too hard to win. Only Merlin has won from that recently.

I see the higher end rated race at Addington is only 10 metres.

Maybe 15m instead of just 10m esp if an R70 against an R110. 

He was saying in a big field too hard & stats prove they cant win with the odd exception off 20m. Just feel like perhaps 10m maybe too slight with the bold example.

Edited 3 hours ago by karrotsishere

[karrotsishere]

On 10/15/2024 at 4:41 PM, Lightning Blue said:

He is a very erratic type of horse that throws his head around and just doesn't want to be there on a lot of occasions.

Had his moment in the Sun though , winning the Victoria Cup 2 years ago beating Better Eclipse and Nz's best horse in Copy That. A golden Group 1 moment. But has Only won 2 races since across 2 years.  . (nearly fluked it (Victoria Cup) last year too, beaten a neck in total,  but was only 4th lol)  so a bit better than most I spose. 

That horse Extremely overrated.  One win this year in a 5 horse field defeating Alta Wiseguy . and just one win last year defeating Simply Sam in a 7 horse field. Both at Auckland. Old Town Road ONLY  did what MANY others have for decades,  in winning 8 races  of his 3 and 4 year old years  . to be a handy 'young' horse. and then only those 2 races in tiny fields,  in past 2 years. 

OTR a Cup horse ?  of any kind ? No Chance.. would of thought Invercargill Cup would of even been too tough 😋. 

Please just shoot me if he is one of the 'better ones' that NZ can come up with these days 🙄. now I can see how raider Swayzee won so easy at Addington anyway 

Gidday my mate Lightening,

Yes agree erratic Doo. Im still interested to see how he goes. Wouldnt surprise me if he wins or places top 3 with manners. 

Lets agree to disagree re Old Town Road :-) 

Old mate Swayzee & Grimson.

I watched last week boxseat. They said B Purdon hadnt won an NZ Cup in many years. Yet hes a pretty good trainer, wouldnt most agree. They went on to say thats how hard it is to win an NZ Cup. 

Tonights quiz

What does the top TAB NZ ranked Cup horses all have in common?

Ill answer question, Merlin, Dont Stop Dreaming & RP ALL were top 2 in their age groups consistently coming the ranks. 

What fascinates me is how Grimsons 1st runner nearly won the NZ Cup, perhaps only got 2nd as got held up by a tiring South Coast Arden, so pleased Copy That won. How was Majestic Crusiers age group stats? 

Then his nxt Cup starter won Swayzee. How were his age group stats?  Not interested in such & suchs brother. Just asking age group stats.

So a no name trainer, with no name owners, suddenly after initally training with limited results comes back & suddenly with horses that didnt come up thru the grades wins NZ Cup & gets 2nd from 2 starters.

Now coming over with 2 more different ones. Nerano whos that horse? District Attorney whos that horse?

So your thinking LTF will beat Merlin or DSD or RP with all that travel & missed fitness. Ok I cant wait to see that. Just like I was looking forward to seeing DSD give RP a head start fresh & beat him. Didnt happen.

just a bit of friendly Cup banter my friend.

Edited 2 hours ago by karrotsishere

[Double R]

I think 20 metres gives more maneuvering possibilities after the start, than 10 metres, and yes, 15 metres would be a better compromise, I think.

All the top horses have to start their preparations in races that will be hard to win. That is just nature of our sport, and if the statistics are clear it is hard to win from those 20 metre marks in the initial stage of a horses preparation, then surely it makes it easier for punters, by discarding those horses. The reality of racing is, the best horses don't always win, and that has been the norm, since I started going to races over 60 years ago.